Today, you may have seen Richard Maybury referred to as another Billy Mitchell. Mitchell was the army officer who foretold the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, but no one listened to Mitchell until it was too late.
Remember Bill Clinton's so-called Monica Missiles? To divert attention from his sex scandals, Clinton bombed one country after another - Afghanistan, Serbia, Iraq and Sudan.
Richard Maybury gave speeches and wrote dozens of articles saying Clinton's habit of attacking people who had not attacked us would provoke massive retaliation. In this newsletter and elsewhere, he said the next decade would be one of war, and some of the most profitable investments would be precious metals.
Those who followed Mr. Maybury's investment advice have done wonderfully. On 9-11, gold was $271. Since then it has been over $454. Silver on 9-11 was $4.18, and since then, as high as $8.23. Platinum was $443; it's been $940.
More importantly, Mr. Maybury believes these run-ups have been only a small taste of things to come. He says this is just one example of the kind of profits the war will generate for those who understand. He's especially bullish about numismatics, or collector coins.
PAT: Mr. Maybury, welcome back. Here we are, another year gone by, and as you have predicted, the war just keeps getting worse. No one seems to know how to end it, and more than ever, we hear people say you are clairvoyant.
RICHARD MAYBURY: Thanks, Pat, I appreciate you inviting me. I always look forward to these Resource Consultant interviews, and to seeing you and your staff again. Over the years we've become good friends. But, as I seem to repeat every year, I'm not clairvoyant. I just do a lot of research, and use a good model to help sift the data. It's the model that counts. A good model yields insight, and a bad one, bewilderment.
PAT: You're saying the government uses a bad model, so it is confused?
RICHARD MAYBURY: Yes, the government's experts begin with the assumption that the country and the government are the same thing. Then, they assume, since the country is good, the government must be good, which means the government's enemies must be bad.
PAT: And this leads to...
RICHARD MAYBURY: Look back at Clinton and his Monica Missiles. What do you think would have happened to a CIA or FBI analyst who sent a report to the president saying, you are murdering a lot of innocent people; their families and friends will find a way to get revenge on us.
PAT: I think the analyst would have been assigned to a hut in Antarctica to count penguins for the rest of his career.
RICHARD MAYBURY: (Laughing) You're right. A government analyst who says the White House or Congress should not be doing whatever it is they are doing will not have a stellar career. His reports must begin with the assumption that Washington is pure as the driven snow, angelic, saintly.
PAT: And Washington's enemies...
RICHAD MAYBURY: Since Washington is perfect and never hurts the innocent, every one of its millions of enemies must be a black-hearted fiend in league with the devil who has no good reason whatsoever for hating Washington. All the data must be forced to fit this model. Anything that does not fit - anything that says, a lot of politicians and bureaucrats are crooks and liars - is buried in the files and never sees the light of day. Washington is always on the side of the angels. Always, always, always.
PAT: Getting back to your predictions about the length of the war, they've been uncanny. For instance, in your October 2001 newsletter you gave a detailed, eight-page description of how the war would unfold. So far, Washington and its enemies have both followed that article like a script.
RICHARD MAYBURY: Pathetic, isn't it. Recently a retired Marine general told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, "The irony of our occupation is simple but profound - there is no stability without us, but our presence inflames the insurgency that causes instability."
PAT: So the war will last many more years?
RICHARD MAYBURY: I think so, and it will grow increasingly expensive. When the war was confined to Afghanistan, it was manageable, but in my opinion, the invasion of Iraq will someday be known as one of the worst mistakes in American history.
PAT: Your model does seem to work a lot better than the one used by the CIA, FBI and so forth. How can our readers learn it?
RICHARD MAYBURY: Anyone who is willing to invest 25 hours and less than $200 can learn the model. I've written a set of 11 books, called the Uncle Eric series, because they are in the form of letters from an economist to his niece or nephew. The whole set takes only about 25 hours to read, and we use this letter-from-my-uncle style so that they are very easy to understand; a 14-year old can handle them with no trouble.
PAT: I've read them, and can say truthfully that I see the world a lot differently now. Your model is so packed with common sense that the accuracy of your predictions is not surprising.
RICHARD MAYBURY: Thank you, I've received hundreds of letters saying the same thing. People are gratified to know they can understand what's happening, even the very complex events that baffle most experts. Just begin with the first book, and by the time you finish the third, I promise you will be astounded and enraged that you were not taught these simple facts when you were in school. By the time you finish the eleventh, you'll feel like...
PAT: Let me finish that, a genius. At parties, I get a kick out of watching the crowd gather around me as I explain what's really going on behind the day's headlines. It's fun.
RICHARD MAYBURY: An example is Bush's new policy of democratizing the whole world. This policy is not new, it's a revival of the British Empire's so-called White Man's Burden policy of the 19th and 20th centuries. Once you understand the White Man's Burden, which is explained in the tenth Uncle Eric book, about the First World War, then you know what's happening today.
PAT: And more importantly, where it's likely to lead. History repeats.
RICHARD MAYBURY: It certainly does. It never repeats exactly, but close enough for us to learn valuable lessons.
PAT: And to earn money from those lessons. Speaking of money, we know the war is expensive, but why do you say will it grow increasingly so?
RICHARD MAYBURY: (More laughter.) There have been more than 14,000 wars on this planet. Have you ever heard of one that became gradually less expensive? Or, for that matter, gradually less insane?
PAT: Okay, okay, dumb question. But please be specific, what exactly will cause the war to grow more expensive?
RICHARD MAYBURY: First, the war is wearing out equipment at a prodigious rate - all wars do that - and the equipment is not being replaced, or some is replaced only partly. US officials are trying to fight the war on the cheap, and the chickens will eventually come home to roost. At some point, they will need to catch up on billions of dollars of delayed spending.
PAT: Aren't you being alarmist? Give us an example.
RICHARD MAYBURY: The Air Force owns a total of 6,100 airplanes. Of these, 2,200 are either grounded or operating under speed or weight restrictions due to worn out or damaged wings, flight controls, vertical stabilizers or other essential parts. In other words, the Air Force is disintegrating, becoming a flying junkyard.
PAT: Okay, any other reasons war spending will rise?
RICHARD MAYBURY: Washington and its enemies both have the same goal, to spread the war.
PAT: Surely you jest.
RICHARD MAYBURY: I wish. Read Bush's January 20th inaugural speech. He said God wants him to democratize the whole world. Well, I count no less than 63 governments that are non-democracies or titular democracies. In effect, Bush's God-wants-me-to-do-it speech was a declaration of war on all 63 regimes. They must either step down or die, which means, to all 63, Washington has become a threat they must eliminate.
PAT: Wasn't that was just rhetoric, he was blowing smoke?
RICHARD MAYBURY: I had hopes of that. But in recent months, Washington has helped topple the regimes of Ukraine, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Lebanon, and on April 19th, state secretary Rice said Belarus is next.
PAT: I see what you mean. Four down, one more in the crosshairs, and 58 to go. Washington is slowly creating a global disruption of unimaginable proportions.
RICHARD MAYBURY: Right. The May and June issues of my EARLY WARNING REPORT include a two-part article explaining the political and economic implications, and the likely results for investments.
PAT: Can you summarize for us?
RICHARD MAYBURY: Bush and the democrats and republicans in Congress are trying to create democracies - majority rule - in at least 63 countries where there has been little or no preparation for it. In many of these cases, probably most, they will get not democracy but chaos.
PAT: Chaos? Can you give us an example?
RICHARD MAYBURY: In 2003, Bush and Congress sent the US armed forces into Iraq. The Iraqi regime was quickly eliminated. Then what happened? Did the Iraqis erect a Jeffersonian republic with liberty and justice for all?
PAT: As I remember, they rioted. They tore up the whole country, burned a lot of it, and stole everything that was not bolted down.
RICHARD MAYBURY: And if they had a wrench, they stole that, too. It's been more than two years since Bush declared victory, and the guerrilla attacks are running at 400 per week. The Iraqi economy is a wreck, and the various political factions are shooting at each other. About 60 Iraqis and Americans are killed or injured each day.
PAT: And you think US officials will trigger similar chaos in 63 countries.
RICHARD MAYBURY: Probably not in all 63, but dozens. It will be a slowly spreading wave of blood and destruction across east Europe, Asia and North Africa, with US troops sent hither and yon trying to get these countries back under control. In a few years, the overstretched US armed forces will look like the Keystone Kops.
PAT: How will Bush and Congress pay for all this?
RICHARD MAYBURY: With higher taxes, of course. But if they raise taxes enough to cover the whole expense, they'll trigger a rebellion, so I think they will also print dollars, like a counterfeiter.
PAT: They'll inflate the money supply.
RICHARD MAYBURY: Yes, probably very heavily. This inflation of the supply of dollars will cause a flight to non-dollar assets.
PAT: What kind of non-dollar assets?
RICHARD MAYBURY: Almost any kind. History shows that in times of political and economic mayhem, the leading havens are the precious metals. I think we will also see a panic to get into real estate, copper, antiques, art, Swiss francs, New Zealand dollars, oil, corn, almost anything that is not denominated in US dollars. The way prices of these things have been rising since 9-11 is a signal that millions of investors around the world have already become nervous about holding dollars, and they have begun fleeing to non-dollar assets.
PAT: What are your predictions for gold and silver?
RICHARD MAYBURY: Well, let me preface the predictions by saying I could be wrong about all of this. I'm not infallible. Peace could break out. Washington and its enemies could kiss and make up. Bush and Osama could become poker buddies watching the Superbowl together.
PAT: Right. Sure. Anything's possible. Let's go with the probabilities, not the possibilities.
RICHARD MAYBURY: Okay, I think the highest probability is for more war, lots of it. Right now, gold is $438 and silver, $7.25. Within three years, I think the chaos and bloodshed across east Europe, Asia and North Africa will be so awful, and the US military buildup so expensive that gold will surpass $1,000 per ounce and silver $15. I give it a 90 percent probability. By the end of the decade, I think it is a 75 percent probability gold will hit $3,000 and silver, $40.
PAT: And after that?
RICHARD MAYBURY: If the war does not end, the sky's the limit. But let me point out, when we see the prices of gold and silver rise - or the price of anything else, oil, real estate, copper, you name it - this is not really these prices rising, it's the dollar falling. I think the war will last decades and it will eventually destroy the dollar completely.
PAT: You mean the way the German mark was destroyed in World War II?
RICHARD MAYBURY: Yes. Inflated into worthlessness. I think this will happen eventually, with gold and silver each priced at millions of dollars per ounce. I don't know when. Say, twenty years, but that's just a guess. Again, I could be completely wrong about all of this...
PAT: Yes, yes, we know, and Bush and Osama could watch the Superbowl together.
RICHARD MAYBURY: Here's another prediction. Someday the federal government will be seen as the worst thing that ever happened to America. People who are loyal to the government will be seen as traitors to their country.
PAT: Then what?
RICHARD MAYBURY: We'll get a new government. If it is similar to the one Jefferson and the other American founders tried to give us - instead of this awful socialist monster we labor under today - we will enter an American golden age of unprecedented liberty, peace and abundance.
PAT: So how do we get from here to there?
RICHARD MAYBURY: It's simple, after the present government commits economic suicide, someone will erect a new one.
PAT: First you sound like the world's worst pessimist, and now you're Pollyanna. How do we make sure this new government is something Jefferson and the other founders would have approved of, something that promotes liberty instead of socialism?
RICHARD MAYBURY: Read my books, and pass them along to others. Really, no joke, that's a main reason I wrote them, to help revive the understanding that will be needed when the present government spends itself to death. Incidentally, sorry about the optimism; I'm in a twelve-step program for newsletter writers suffering from cheerfulness, but I missed a few meetings.
PAT: Any other predictions?
RICHARD MAYBURY: Well, in the May and June 2005 issues of EARLY WARNING REPORT, I explain that the decision made by the European Union in March is almost certain to cause the euro to take a sharp drop, and lead to big trouble in Europe, plus additional profits in gold and silver. I also explain why I think China is headed for a depression and civil war, and possibly war with Japan or Taiwan, and with the US.
PAT: Any other cheerful news?
RICHARD MAYBURY: The March and May issues of EARLY WARNING REPORT explain that US officials have hijacked religion to whitewash their military strategy, and this will lead to a crisis in Christianity. If I'm right about this, I will be interested to see how the new Pope deals with it.
PAT: Religion and war. Like mixing nitro and glycerin.
RICHARD MAYBURY: Again, I could be completely wrong about all of this, but I have a suspicion the second half of the decade will make the first half look very tame.
PAT: Given your track record, that's a riveting thought. You mentioned China.
RICHARD MAYBURY: To me, it's beginning to look like China will be one of the biggest and nastiest of the surprises.
PAT: Explain please.
RICHARD MAYBURY: Look back in history. China is so big - four times the population of the US - that when something important happens there, it almost always involves not thousands of people but millions, even tens of millions. In the past, China has been isolated from the rest of the world, so these colossal upheavals haven't had much affect on us. Now, China is an integral part of the world economy, and when it's boom ends, I think the bust will be earth shaking, we will all feel it. Those who understand will earn enormous profits, and those who don't will suffer big losses.
PAT: Same as for the war.
RICHARD MAYBURY: Yes. If you understand, you make money, and if you don't, well...
PAT: So learn all you can, and help others learn.
RICHARD MAYBURY: Right.
PAT: In EARLY WARNING REPORT, you seem especially bullish about numismatics, or collectors' coins.
RICHARD MAYBURY: Big wars, and the inflations they bring, usually cause a flight to precious metals. As we've seen, it appears this flight has begun. Numismatics are the rarest form of precious metals. I think the flight from the dollar will cause them to become to this decade what the dot-coms were to the 1990s. As I said last year, I would not be surprised to see, for instance, an MS-65 Double Eagle go up twenty or thirty times from present prices.
PAT: When?
RICHARD MAYBURY: Within ten years. Possibly as soon as five. I know it sounds crazy, but the war is growing worse fast. And then we have the euro situation, and the coming China crisis explained in the May EARLY WARNING REPORT. I think greed-crazed speculators will eventually do with numismatics what they did with the dot-coms. No one has ever before thrown 63 countries into revolutions, so we don't really know what to expect, but a stampede into precious metals seems a good bet.
PAT: Aren't you exaggerating? Surely US officials are not so stupid and arrogant as to throw 63 countries into turmoil?
RICHARD MAYBURY: (More laughter) Interesting question, how stupid and arrogant are they? How do we measure it? As you pointed out earlier, in the attempt to cram democracy down other people's throats, they've already thrown Iraq, Lebanon, Georgia, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan into turmoil, and they are working on Belarus, so how much more chaos do they need to create for us to say their hubris is colossal?
PAT: I get your point. What precautions do you suggest when buying numismatics?
RICHARD MAYBURY: I consider numismatics to be speculations, not sure things, so don't bet the farm on them. Five or ten percent of your savings might be a good plan. Don't go higher than that unless you are a multi-millionaire. Also, unless you are a very experienced collector who can spot differences in numismatic grading, buy only coins in the sealed cases certified by ICG, PCGS or NGC.
PAT: You've written many revealing EARLY WARNING REPORT articles during the past year, things the mainstream press won't talk about, especially the impossibility of imposing democracy, a western concept, on Islamic societies. You've also written about what you call "the political hijacking of Christianity." How can our readers subscribe to EWR, and get back issues to bring them up to date on what the war is really all about, and where it is headed?
RICHARD MAYBURY: It's true, the back issues would be very helpful. I have asked our marketing department to make a special offer available to your readers. The regular subscription price of EWR is $300 per year - that's for ten issues - but if your readers mention special offer number 632, they can get a subscription for just $169. I have also arranged to include free the latest issue of EWR, plus a special report about the war called "Chaostan, the Full Story," and a map of trouble spots.
PAT: Sounds like a good deal.
RICHARD MAYBURY: It is, a $350 package for just $169. Also, the normal price of the previous 12 back issues would be $228, but if your readers want to be brought up to date, the marketing department has given me permission to take 35 percent off, making the back issues just $148. But they must mention special offer 632. They can call 1-800-509-5400 or send a check or their Visa or MasterCard card information to EARLY WARNING REPORT, Box 84908, Phoenix, AZ 85071. Or fax 602-943-2363.
PAT: What about the set of Uncle Eric books that explain what's called "Richard Maybury's model of how the world works." You said the whole set only takes 25 hours to read.
RICHARD MAYBURY: I've arranged for your readers to get the first book free - it's a $14.95 value - if they order the whole set. That comes to $147.50 plus $12.90 shipping and handling for all 11 books. If someone bought the books separately, with shipping and handling, the cost would be over $200, so that's a savings of more than $50.
PAT: Okay, now that I have you headed down discount road, how about the whole package? The books, 12 back issues, a year's subscription to EARLY WARNING REPORT, and the map and special war report?
RICHARD MAYBURY: (Picking up the phone.) Pat, you're turning this into a real challenge.
PAT: My readers deserve it.
RICHARD MAYBURY: Okay, the marketing department says the whole course - because that's what it is, a course of study - can go to your readers for $425. This saves your readers more than $325, or 44%. But they must order right away, the marketing people won't keep the offer open for long. And they have to mention Resource Consultants, special offer 632.
PAT: Generous discounts, thanks for arranging them for our readers. I've been getting EWR for 14 years, and never hesitate to recommend it, there is no other newsletter like it, especially in regard to the investment effects of the war. Thanks again for taking the time to meet with us.
RICHARD MAYBURY: Thank you, Pat, and you are right, everyone should learn all they can about this war, I think it will be the strongest influence on the economy and the investment markets, probably for the rest of our lives. Get interested in precious metals, too. Europeans have a lot of experience with big wars, and they know what happens to investments during wars. This is part of the reason they have a long tradition of continually accumulating gold and silver coins. A wise American will do the same.
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