Internet Special Bulletin, 1-Nov-02

Preparations For The Invasion of Iraq Have Begun

Dear Reader,

     On October 23rd, President Bush said he has ordered the US military to prepare for an attack on Iraq.

     On October 31, the FINANCIAL TIMES of London reported a massive deployment of US troops, equipment and supplies to the Persian Gulf, including at least three aircraft carrier battle groups.

     A mobilization this size is very expensive. If Washington is spending this much money, then they are not bluffing, they probably intend to attack.

     Also, Bush has repeated many times that he plans a "regime change" for Iraq.

     So, under international law, Bush's threat plus his mobilization of forces, constitutes a "clear and present danger" to the Iraqi regime. You may remember that the threats and mobilizations that provoked World War I were nowhere near as stark as these.

     Faced with a clear and present danger, the Iraqi regime now has the legal right to defend itself, to make a pre-emptive attack on the US.

      This brings us to Washington's war planning. How good is it?

Who Is In Charge?

     First is the objective, the desired political outcome. An example of the objective in World War II was President Roosevelt telling General Eisenhower, eradicate the government of Adolph Hitler.

     Second is the grand strategy, the broad plan the generals develop for using their troops and materiel to achieve the objective. In World War II, Allied generals decided the best way to achieve the objective was to invade Normandy.

     Third is the operational strategy, the maneuvering of the large military units. In 1944, the generals decided Utah Beach and Omaha Beach would be assaulted by the American army and navy, Gold Beach and Sword Beach by the British, and Juno Beach by the Canadians.

     Fourth is tactics, invented and executed on a day-to-day basis by unit commanders. In 1944, after the 101st Airborne Division was parachuted onto the Cherbourg Peninsula, its battalions, companies, platoons and squads sought out and destroyed bunkers and other German assets behind the beaches.

     Robert F. Dorr writing in AIR FORCE TIMES[1] reports that planning for the invasion of Iraq has begun: "Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and a few advisers are concocting the invasion of Iraq. Many generals say they don't know what's going on."

     Dorr emphasizes the war plans cooked up by the civilians, who have little military experience, are being kept secret from most of the generals.

     As for the grand strategy and operational strategy the civilians have invented, Dorr quotes military analyst and retired Air Force Colonel Michael Haas: "The US seems to be relying on two assumptions. First, Saddam learned nothing from his encounter with the US war machine in 1991. Assumption two is that Iraqi generals will turn on Saddam and depose him as soon as the first bomb falls."

     In other words, Rumsfeld and other civilian leaders are issuing not only the objective but the grand strategy and operational strategy, and a key element in these strategies is the assumption that Saddam's most loyal troops, his Republican Guard, will surrender or turn on him.

     This is tantamount to Roosevelt saying to Eisenhower, you will eradicate Hitler's government, and I have decided the best way to do it is by invading these five beaches in Normandy. And, trust me on this, you won't need to do much fighting because I have also decided Hitler's SS will switch sides.

     Why do they hate us? They hate us because we are good and they are evil. That's all there is to it, that's all you need to know. The September 11, 2001 attack was completely unprovoked, just like that of December 7, 1941, right?

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