Internet Special Bulletin, 1-Oct-02

Don't Remove Saddam, Warned Bush Senior

In 1998, former President George Bush explained why he decided to leave Saddam Hussein in power. Wrote Bush,

While we hoped that popular revolt or coup would topple Saddam, neither the U.S. nor the countries of the region wished to see the breakup of the Iraqi state.      We were concerned about the long-term balance of power at the head of the Gulf. Trying to eliminate Saddam, extending the ground war into an occupation of Iraq, would have violated our guideline about not changing objectives in midstream, engaging in "mission creep," and would have incurred incalculable human and political costs.      Apprehending him was probably impossible. We had been unable to find Noriega in Panama, which we knew intimately. We would have been forced to occupy Baghdad and, in effect, rule Iraq.      The coalition would instantly have collapsed, the Arabs deserting it in anger and other allies pulling out as well.      Under those circumstances there was no viable "exit strategy" we could see, violating another of our principles.      Going in and occupying Iraq, thus unilaterally exceeding the United Nation's mandate, would have destroyed the precedent of international response to aggression we hoped to establish.      Had we gone the invasion route, the U.S. could conceivably still be an occupying power in a bitterly hostile land. It would have been a dramatically different--and perhaps barren--outcome.

From A WORLD TRANSFORMED, by Former President George Bush, published by Alfred A. Knopf, 1998, p.489.

   Editor, Early Warning Report
   October 1, 2002

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