"History repeats. It never repeats exactly, but close enough for the wise investor to learn valuable lessons. If this war continues following the usual pattern, we will see a massive, automatic transfer of wealth, from those who do not understand, to those who do." - Jan 2005 EWR
Rhyming Our Way To Profits
Extracted from the June 2007 and the January 2009 issues of EWR
I’ve mentioned before that studying 2,500 years of economic history can give a person the perspective of someone with 25 centuries of experience. This is why I am sometimes called the 2,500 hundred year-old man.
Before I tell you what I think a 2,500-year old man would say about what is coming, let me point out that I doubt you will find this explanation anywhere else, because in the world of politics and economics, I am a professional heretic.
We are a rare breed. During the American Revolution, we were a dime a dozen; half the population could have written EWR. But the government-controlled schools have nearly wiped us out.
History repeats, because governments keep making the same stupid mistakes. It never repeats exactly, but close enough for us to learn valuable lessons that can help steer our investment decisions. As Mark Twain said, history does not repeat, but it rhymes. It gives us a feel for what’s likely to come next.
A truism among historians is that when the Roman Empire fell in 476 AD, few Romans noticed. Most of the earth-shaking events happened far from their homes, and it took hundreds of years for the true magnitude of the events to be understood.
The fall of the Roman Empire wasn’t a disaster for everyone. Thousands were in the right places at the right times to do quite well from it, and live long and prosperous lives. I see no reason you and I cannot do the same.
The collapse of the US Empire does not mean the collapse of the US. It just means the global rebellion against Washington has begun, and Uncle Sam’s power is slipping away. Indeed, his control over his foreign minions is already nearly gone. His domination of the rest of the world is slowly returning to what it ought to be, which is zero.
When the British Empire fell, Britain did not disappear. It’s still there, a nice place. The same for the French Empire — France is still there, and beautiful.
I’m sure it will be the same for the US.
Unfortunately, in the Mideast, Washington has waded into the tarpit so deeply that it is stuck tight, so we are in for a long, bloody fight that will continue causing profound changes in the economy and investments.
This is not a lot different than when the French and British governments were run out of the Islamic world. Some people went broke and others earned fortunes.
The typical American hasn’t the foggiest idea what’s happening. For these people, the fall of the US Empire will continue delivering one nasty surprise after another.
For those who have their eyes open and are striving to learn all they can about this amazing event, I think big profits will continue pouring in for at least two more decades.
Empires are not built in a day, and they don’t fall in a day.
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